Wednesday 6 March 2013

"The Sky 4"... Not Anymore....

The top of the PL (the top 4) used to be one of the most exclusive clubs in football, in fact it was so exclusive that for the most part, only 4 clubs (with the odd exception) ever were allowed in...

Over the years, predominantly through Martin Jol and Harry Redknapp's reign we have threatened to gatecrash this club (we did it a couple of season's back)... One of the biggest problems is that two of its "current" incumbents will stop at nothing short of spending whatever it takes to stay there (Chelsea & Man City for those not keeping up)... Another, Man Utd, take their place every season (no questions asked!! - this is a tongue in cheek remark)...

So with in effect 1 place up for grabs between Arsenal (serial members), Spurs (new kids on the block), Liverpool (former annual members who have fallen on hard times) and Everton (one time members) it is getting tougher and tougher to qualify (gain membership)...

With that in mind and knowing how (in my mind at least) we have closed the gap on our London rivals from the West and South, I thought I would have a look back over the last 9 years (in groups of 3 years) since Arsenal last won the PL and see how the gap has closed... 

The tables below show 2004/05 to 2006/07, 2007/08 to 2009/10 and 2010/11 to 2012/13 (the current season not yet finished)...

I have taken the records of the 7 protagonists for this season (Man Utd, Man City, Spurs, Chelsea, Arsenal, Everton, Liverpool) these have been the most consistent sides over that period too...

The tables also show how the teams fared from one 3 year period to the next and then lastly to highlight how a mixture of us improving and Arsenal and Chelsea going backwards, there is a table covering last season and this... Which really shows in recent times who really is top dog in London...



The first thing to note is how consistent Man Utd have been, in fact, when Jose took Chelsea to new heights and put Man Utd on the back foot, Fergie 
re-grouped and has come back stronger... An incredible achievement.

I have highlighted the London sides to show how far we have come from 9 years ago, Chelsea from the JM side have dropped off in every conceivable way.  Personally, I put this down to ever changing managers and not addressing the areas of the side that need addressing...

Arsenal have just been in a downward spiral for some time now and the tables don't lie... It is worth noting here, that in terms of downward spiral, Liverpool's fall from the "top table" is nothing short of staggering...

Whilst Man City have bought their way in, we have evolved under a few different managers, built steadily and now as you will see from the next table (which covers last season and this - until match 28) that we have overtaken both our London rivals...

Yes, I realise that there are 10 huge games left this season... but the trend has us heading upwards while Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool head in the opposite direction...



Lastly we can compare the London sides records over the last 9 years in groups of 3 seasons, this will again highlight the giant strides we have made in catching these sides and now, hopefully, pass them...



Our record over the last 3 seasons is already better than the previous groups of 3 seasons and we still have 10 games to play... A decent end to the season will see us break 200 points over a 3 season period, which is where Arsenal and Liverpool always used to be, guaranteeing a place in the CL year on year..

Not to mention the improvement in the goal difference (from a better defensive record).  On the face of it, we are turning losses into wins whereas Arsenal and Chelsea are doing the opposite.  The draws records of all 3 sides over the periods are remarkably similar all the way through for each.

If we are to challenge the Manchester sides at the very top, we will need a world class striker or two... It is one area where we still need to improve and the stats show the lack of goals (by comparison) is still an issue.  We were 50+ goals behind Chelsea and Arsenal in the early part of the millenium, but have closed that gap to 20-30... one world class striker!!!

COYS

Friday 1 March 2013

London Calling....

If you are old enough to remember when EVERY London Derby was met with trepidation, whether it was Charlton or Chelsea, West Ham or Wimbledon, we just did not do very well...

In fact our record was appalling through the 90's...

I lost count the amount of times we'd play really well against Chelsea & then Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink would fall over a blade of grass and we would be gallant losers...

But...

Recently, we seemed to have bucked the trend... the last few years have seen wins (yes wins) over Chelsea and Arsenal, a win at the Emirates, sadly no win at Stamford Bridge (yet) since the Titanic went down.. sorry, that was Anfield. 

So as we are on the eve of another (yes I am loathed to call it a North London Derby) London Derby, one that we are led to believe is of gargantuan proportions, I thought I would have a look back over the last 10 years and see how we have progressed against all of our nearest and dearest...

You will see the figures split by season, by opponent and by home & away and there are some interesting (interesting if you wear an anorak like me) patterns that emerge...

For instance, Monday night's opponents West Ham, despite 'Lasagnagate' we have a fantastic record against them... In fact, gutting as that game was, it is one of only two defeats to that lot in the last 14 games!!

Season by Season Record (with home & away splits):



As you would expect, we are a lot stronger at home and getting stronger, if you look at the 5 year splits, we are almost unbeatable at home... but what do I know, they say form goes out of the window in local Derbies!!!

5 year Splits: 2003-2008 & 2008-2013



The contrast is incredible, almost doubling the amount of PPG away from home and just one loss (Chelsea this season) at home in the last 5 years...


v Clubs Record (with home & away split):



Yes the numbers against Chelsea and Arsenal are bad (or worse), but they are improving, there are not just round 'zero's' in the Win column anymore...

Season's like the current one, with 6 London clubs in the Premier League and 10 London Derbies (that's over a quarter of the season) it is the results in these games that may yet decide the CL places!!

So hold onto your hats... we have 3 to play starting with a minor little matter this Sunday... 7pts from the 3 remaining Derbies should see us home (in my humble opinion)...

COYS